Party Identification, 1952-2000
The graphic shows the results of a survey of political-party affiliation conducted by National Election Studies at the University of Michigan. Figures include "leaners" — people inclined to favor a particular party.
More people identified themselves as Democrats than as adherents to any other party. Democrats are seen as the party of social change that best represents the interests of the "common man." The early 1960s saw the first televised presidential candidate debates, which helped to put Kennedy in the White House. The election of 1964 was seen as a battle over true issues, such as social security and civil rights (Goldwater wanted to cut spending and support; Johnson supported them and won by a landslide). We still seemed to have faith in our government and leaders to do the "the right thing." A few years later, after Vietnam and Watergate, and the resignation of a president, our views must have become far more jaundiced (seeing politicians as crooked or self-serving dates back to years far earlier than seen on this panel, of course!). Certainly this played some role in the rise of those seeing themselves as "independents" — not affiliated with either party.
Republicans saw a return to power in the 1980s — and a rise in affiliation, as well. Reagan's charisma won over voters, even as others blamed him for trade deficits and "trickle down economics." The level of those who view themselves as apolitical has remained nearly constant for 40 years.
So who is mostly like to vote for a particular party? According to the survey, 61% of union households were Democrats in 2000, down from 66% in 1952. In 1952, more men were Democrats than women (58 versus 56%) were. In 1966, women surpassed men in the party for the first time. By 2000, 53% of women claimed to be Democrats, while men had dropped back to 46%.
Roughly 60% of those with just a grade-school education aligned with the Democrats over recent years; more than 50% of those with a high-school diploma did. For African Americans, the identification rates increased during the civil rights struggles of the 1960s. In 1952, 63% claimed to be Democrats; 82% did so in 1964, 91% did in 1968. By 2000, the percentage had fallen back to 83% (just 44% of all whites claim such an affiliation).
Those who identify with the Republicans are more likely to be educated white males. Thirty-three percent of men identified with the party in 1952; 41% did in 2000. Thirty-five percent of women saw themselves as members in 1952, 34% of them did so in 2000. By education, the highest rates were for college and post-graduate degree holders. Fifty-three percent claimed to embrace Republican ideals in 1952, compared to 48% in 2000.
More people began thinking of themselves as Independents in the 1960s. Recently, independent candidates have become formidable powers in elections. John Anderson garnered 7% of the final vote in 1980; H. Ross Perot received 19% of the vote in 1992, and 8% in 1996. Ralph Nader's 2% in 2000 is seen by many as having cost Gore the election.
Some points worth making here: most states ask voters when they register to express a party preference. Registration lists help the parties in mobilizing voters for Election Day. However, simply because one identifies with a party doesn't mean that one has to vote that way; voters often split tickets and do not vote a straight-party ticket. Note also that curves of affiliation tend to mirror each other. As Democratic affiliation drops, Republican affiliation rises. And vice-versa.
Source: "The NES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior." Online. Available: http://www.umich.edu. April 4, 2002.
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