These data are obtained by taking Census results for the foreign-born, deducting the population which can be independently enumerated from the records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service (adjusted for mortality) and for the emigration (exit) of legal immigrants. Temporary migrants are deducted next (foreign students, temporary workers, etc.). Finally, deducting foreign-born residents who have a quasi-legal status — asylum-seekers and others in the INS processing backlog further reduces the residual. This leaves a group of people whom the Census Bureau labels "implied unauthorized migrants." This population was some 8.5 million in 2000.
In a final note to the data, the 8.5 million were not all physically counted in the Census. A substantial number were assumed to be "undercounted" — missed for some reason, probably because they were not willing to respond to questionnaires or avoided census takers. Estimating the level of undercount depends, to some extent, on the more or less arbitrary choice of some percentile figure, however well justified. The 8.5 million value is based on an assumption that legal immigrants had an undercount rate of 2% (twice that of the population as a whole), temporary migrants of 35%, others of known status 5%, and unauthorized migrants of 12%. The undercount rate for the total population was about 1%, for Hispanic renters just under 5%. In fact one wonders why 88% of illegal aliens actually filled out the forms; they must feel that the Census doesn't talk much to "La Migra."
The INS web site reports an illegal alien population of 5.0 million for 1996 and an estimate that the number increases at the rate of 275,000 people a year. This is a net figure; more come in, but a substantial number also leave again; some die here; etc. If the INS estimates are correct, the 2000 illegal alien population should be 6.1 million, substantially below the 8.5 million figure reported by the Census Bureau study.
Other figures are also offered by other sources, suggesting that, ultimately, the number of illegal immigrants is not what might be called a very "hard" figure.
Given these estimates, the foreign-born population increased by 13.3 million between 1990 (19.8 million) and 2000 (33.1 million). If 25.7% of the foreign-born population is made up of illegal immigrants, the rate of net in-migration of undocumented foreigners was around 342,000 a year.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and 1999 Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Robinson, J. Gregory, "ESCAP II - Demographic Analysis Results." Executive Steering Committee for A.C.E. Policy II. Report No. 1, 13 October 2001. Online. Available: http://www.ins.usdoj.gov/graphics/aboutins/statistics/Illegals.htm.
1 Asians are always listed as a racial group, although they include Mongolian, Polynesian, Indonesian, Caucasian, Asian Indian, and other racial groupings.
2 All cities shown are Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by the Office of Management and Budget, the Office of the President. Rankings are by population of African Americans in each MSA, the lowest population being the left-most, the highest the right-most on the graphic.
3 All cities shown are Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by the Office of Management and Budget, the Office of the President. Rankings are by population of Hispanics in each MSA, the lowest population being the left-most, the highest the right-most on the graphic.
4 All cities shown are Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by the Office of Management and Budget, the Office of the President. Rankings are by population of Asians and Pacific Islanders in each MSA, the lowest population being the left-most, the highest the right-most on the graphic.
5 All cities shown are Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by the Office of Management and Budget, the Office of the President. Rankings are by population of American Indians in each MSA, the lowest population being the left-most, the highest the right-most on the graphic.
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