Who Are We - Total Fertility: Ethnic And Racial Detail

This graphic displays the total fertility rate (TFR) by ethnic/racial groups for the 9-year period 1989 through 1997. Demographic focus on fine differences between ethnicities and racial groups goes back 40 years as it relates to African Americans and 20 years as it relates to Hispanics, Asian Americans, and Pacific Islanders. Therefore a consistent comparison between racial and ethnic groups as shown here can only be shown for recent years. Detailed measurements, as these relate to the age groups of women in their period of fertility, were not reported.

The chart shows that Hispanics have the highest total fertility rate, followed, in order, by African Americans, American Indians, Asians and Pacific Islanders, and whites.

The first two populations reproduce "above" the replacement rate — meaning that their birth rate, if it continues at current levels, will completely replace the current population and, in these cases, produce net growth. But both the Hispanic and African American total fertility rates show a downtrending tendency.

The other four populations are "below" replacement rate. This means that, over the long term — again, if the TFRs continue at current levels — these groups will lose population share.

As shown in the last panel, the total fertility rate in the developed world is below replacement. In practice this means that the population will remain stable or will decline — unless fertility rates change. In the less developed regions of the world, especially the so-called "third world," fertility is high. This is true in most of Africa, India, and Malaysia.

It is generally assumed that as development proceeds, total fertility will drop below replacement level in those regions as well. It is well to note, however, that these trends are not likely to signal the gradual disappearance of humankind. Populations respond to the environment — whether human-made or natural — in surprisingly adaptive ways.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics Reports. Vol. 47. No. 18, April 29, 1999. Online. 2002. Available: www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr47/nvs47_18.pdf.