Who Are We - Total Fertility: Blacks And Whites

The total fertility rate is not available for all of the racial and ethnic groups into which, in the early 21st century, demographers like to divide the American population. Data for whites and African Americans are available back to 1960 together with a series called "All other races" (not shown). In the 1940 to 1960 period, the only category other than white was "Negro and Other."

These series are shown in the graphic above together with the composite total fertility rate (TFR). The movement of this measure, over time, makes several interesting points.

The African American fertility rate is higher than the TFR for whites, reflecting the general observation that populations with higher income have lower fertility rates. The black population's income, throughout this period, was lower than that of the white population taken as a whole.

Black and white fertility rates show the same pattern of change — indicating that the same overall national and economic experiences produce very much the same kind of behavior.

Shown at the bottom of the chart, as bars, is the difference between the African American and the white TFR. Differences are most pronounced in the period of the Baby Boom — where everything, it seems, was exaggerated.

The straight line traversing the bars is the linear trend of these data. It clearly shows that blacks' total fertility rate is trending down — undoubtedly as a consequence of diminishing economic differences between the two groups. Note that the black TFR dips below the replacement rate in 1983 and 1984 and hovers just above the replacement rate toward the end of the 58-year period shown.

The white TFR closely matches — indeed defines — the overall TFR for all races. Whites represent the majority of the population. In this presentation, Hispanics are included either in the African American rate (if the Hispanic women were black) or in the white rate (if they were white). Asian Americans, Pacific Islanders, and Native North Americans are reflected only in the "Negro and Other" portion of the curve for the 1940 to 1960 period.

In the next panel, for a more recent 9-year period, we shall look at these racial/ethnic components in more detail.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. National Center for Health Statistics. "Total Fertility Rates and Birth Rates by Race, 1940-1980 and 1981-1997." Online. 2002. National Center for Health Statistics. Available: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/default.htm.