Who Are We - Are Births Replacing Deaths?

All over the world, development has been accompanied by a drop in the reproductive rate, usually expressed as the "Total Fertility Rate" or TFR. The TFR is defined as the total number of children a woman will have in her childbearing years if current fertility rates continue. The value is usually expressed as children per 1,000 women in the 15 to 44 age group — or as children per woman. A population will replace itself if this rate is 2,100 children per 1,000 women or 2.1 children per woman, on average². This is known as the replacement rate. In 2000, this value was 2,134 for the United States, or 2.13 children per woman. A comparison with other countries/regions will put this into perspective. The data shown are for 1996:

Total Fertility Rate the World Over - 1998 Children born to women during fertile years³

United States	2.0
European community (1996)	1.4
Bulgaria, Hong Kong, Latvia (world's lowest)	1.1
Niger (world's highest)	7.3
Japan	1.4
India	3.2
China	1.9
Russia	1.2
Malaysia	3.1

Based on these data, the total fertility rate in the United States is one of the higher rates for a developed country — above replacement level in 2000. During the period shown in the graphic, the TFR has been above replacement rate in the 1940 to 1970 period, below it in the 1971 through 1999 period, and has just peaked above the line in 2000 for the first time in 29 years.

In the next panel, we look more closely at the total fertility rate, examining first the differences between African Americans and whites and, in the next panel, between all of the racial/ethnic groups for a more recent period.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). "Vital Statistics of the United States, 1998," Volume I, Natality, updated from later issues of National Vital Statistics Reports and Monthly Vital Statistics Report also published by NCHS.