Who Are We - Births Of A Nation

In 1909, 2.7 million babies were born. In that year the birth rate stood at 30 live births for every 1,000 people; and the fertility was 126.8 babies for every 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 years. At that time World Wars I and II were still in the future. So was the great Depression. And anyone saying "Baby Boom" would have received strange looks from his or her neighbor.

Nearly a century later, in 2000, just shy of 4.1 million babies were born. The birth rate had dropped to less than half of its 1909 rate — 14.8 births per 1,000 people. The fertility rate had declined to 67.6 babies per 1,000 women in the childbearing cohorts of the population. The nation had seen a long, sustained period of prosperity and, in recent years, a great upsurge in wealth and general well being. The troubles of 2001 were still ahead, and anyone talking of 9/11 wouldn't have been understood.

Grand sweeps of demographic data, such as the one shown above, vaguely hint at the interplay of good times and of troubles as they — along with culture, ethnic and racial composition, and many other factors — affect the birth rate.

The Roaring 20s produced a slide in fertility and births. Births began to climb in the dark days of the Depression as people began to live once again according to basic values. The birth rate flattened briefly as Johnny marched off to war and Rosie the Riveter went to the factory. Then came the Baby Boom, the defining demographic event of the 20th century — and with us to this day. It stands like a mountain in the center of this century of births. As the 1960s began, fertility began to drop to levels never seen before. Births continued rising — but the population, of course, had by then increased from around 92 million in 1910 to 178 million in 1960 — due to new births but also due to immigration and a lengthening life span.

Several things are worth noting in these data¹. The birth rate, while declining, is staying relatively flat. This measure, which relates births to total population, indirectly reflects increasing longevity. People remain in the population longer and longer. If the life expectancy of 1909 had prevailed in 2000, the birth rate would have been higher.

The fertility rate — births for each 1,000 women of childbearing age — fluctuates much more. It responds to many factors — not least income, education, divorce rates, abortion practices, general levels of confidence, women's participation in the workforce (much higher as time moves forward), and so on. Since about the 1970s, the fertility rate has been relatively stable.

Generations echo one another. Note that the peak reached in 1921 is "echoed" in 1943 — a new generation is settling down to breed. Similarly, the peak reached in 1947, after World War II wound down, is echoed by another peak 23 years later in 1970 — and again, 20 years later, in 1990. Thus fertility rates are influenced by the past and shape the future. Troughs are also echoed. Deployment of troops in large-scale wars produce dips in births.

This is the overall picture. In the next three panels, we shall take a closer look at the driving force behind the births of a nation — fertility — and the factors that influence it.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). "Vital Statistics of the United States, 1998," Volume I, Natality, updated from later issues of National Vital Statistics Reports and Monthly Vital Statistics Report also published by NCHS.