The curve is the most interesting feature of this graphic. It seems to suggest that the late 19th century was, in some way, much less "religious" than mid-20th century America or, for that matter, America in the first year of the 21st century. In 1890, only 34% of the U.S. population was enrolled in religious organizations. In 2001, the number was 54%. Are we looking at "religiousness" or at something else? Most people, if asked, might say that people in the past were much more religious than they are now.
The first issue to explore is the nature of the data. Membership in religious bodies is not a question asked in the 10-year censuses of the United States. It is information collected by each religious body, and different denominations or faiths have different definitions of membership; these also have changed over time. Some churches report all baptisms; others report only "communicants," usually persons 13 years and older. Large denominations collect data in a systematic manner and record results on forms. Others use baptismal records. Yet others poll local churches for estimates. Data published by the Census often have been "the latest available data," not data for a given year. People collecting and transmitting data may be highly trained in statistical methods or trained not at all.
All this, perhaps, underlines the meaning of "separation of church and state." In fact, these data may be considered just rough approximations. In general, reporting included fewer actual members in the early portion of this series than in later — in one case heads of households only were reported by a major group, later all members of the religion. Therefore the low figures in the early years and the much higher ones in later years probably come from changing definitions, the mix of religious denominations, and other similar factors — not least urbanization and growing statistical sophistication as time advanced.
The increase in membership that peaked in 1960 — and the decline thereafter — might be understood (all things being equal) as yet another phenomenon of the Baby Boom — which was itself the consequence of war, another condition that causes people to look inward. The sharp rise in membership, as a percent of population, begins in 1940 and peaks as the Baby Boom approaches its maturity. Many families become active in religious bodies as their children reach a certain age. The falling off in membership that comes thereafter very well may be largely a demographic phenomenon, although cultural forces probably play a role as well.
In the next panel, we look at attendance at religious services as it relates to membership in religious bodies.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1980, 1992 and 2001. U.S. Census Bureau. Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970. 2001 data : U.S. Census Bureau. "National Population Estimates." Retrieved February 15, 2002 from http://eire.census.gov/popest/data/national.php. Barry A. Kosmin, et. al. American Religious Identification Survey 2001, December 19, 2001. Retrieved February 15, 2002 from http://www.gc.cuny.edu/studies/aris.pdf.
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