Growth in educational attainment has been "flattening." Fewer than 4 of 10 born around 1900 had a high school education. There was a lot of room to grow. By 1997, 70% of the oldest group (55 or older) had completed high school. 25 to 34-year-olds and those in the prime working age, 35 to 54, both had 87% high school completion rates. Educational attainment grew in the 20th century because many people who traditionally stopped after elementary school went on — and a quarter of adults went beyond high school. At present high school-and-above educational attainment is growing least among Asians; next in order come whites and Hispanics; African Americans have the highest growth rate:
Attainment and Population Dynamics Adults 25 and Older
| Population Segment | Attainment, High School or Higher in 2000 (%) | % growth in attainment, 1990 to 2000 | % of population in 2000 | % growth of 25 and older population, 2000 to 2010 |
| Asians | 85.6 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 32.0 |
| Whites | 84.9 | 7.3 | 74.0 | 4.2 |
| Hispanics | 57.0 | 12.2 | 10.8 | 31.4 |
| Blacks | 78.5 | 18.6 | 11.3 | 14.9 |
Note that, with the exception of Hispanics, the higher the attainment, the lower the growth rate. The Hispanic experience is influenced by immigration. The educational attainment of native-born Hispanics in 2000 was 71.8%, just a little lower than that of blacks.
The upper curve in the graphic, leading to an attainment rate just over 90%, assumes that the growth rates shown in the table — both for educational attainment and for population — will actually take place. To some extent this outcome is unrealistic. It assumes that the very high growth rate of the black population will continue; it has been slowing. It also assumes that the white population rate of growth will continue; it has been slowing as well. The projection also assumes that the high rate of Hispanic immigration, which is built into the population forecast, will continue. It may very well slow.
The assumption behind the lower curve, which shows a decline in attainment of about a point, is that each population group will continue to have its 2000 rate of attainment in the future. The declining composite rate will be due to the more rapid growth of groups with lower attainment. Asian Americans, although they have a high attainment rate and will be growing at the fastest rate, are a small proportion of the total adult population. The net effect will be a slight decline.
The most realistic projection is that attainment will continue to grow, but at a slower rate, eventually flattening as equilibrium is reached early in the 21st century. Where that equilibrium will be — at 90%, at 85%, lower, or higher, is difficult to predict.
It is not at all unlikely that emphasis will shift from watching "high school and above" to tracking the "college and above" attainment level. In 2000, for the adult population as a whole, this rate was just at 25% (4 years of college and higher). Asian American educational attainment may be the wave of the future. They had just shy of 44% achievement in this category in 2000.
All this, of course, begs an important question, explored in another volume of this series: Is the education actually attained the same education youth got in the 1970s and 1980s? There are indications that in both reading and math, there have been steep declines in actual learning.
Sources: For educational attainment, Current Population Survey, March 2000. Population projections from the Middle Series, U.S. Bureau of the Census. Projections made by the authors using these two sources. For a sophisticated analysis of this subject, see Jennifer Cheeseman Day and Kurt J. Bauman, "Have We Reached the Top? Educational Attainment Projections of the U.S. Population," May 2000, Working Paper No. 43, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau.
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