Trends in Occupations - Are We Too Educated For The Future Job Market?

The graph shows the percentage of the civilian workforce population, 16 years and older, that has attained various levels of education. A demand for a workforce that must have an associate degree or higher has been matched by an increase in people with degrees. But the number of people in the workforce who have a degree is greater than the number of jobs that call for a degree.

The following table shows the match-up between people in the civilian workforce, grouped by educational attainment and the jobs available for them. Data are for 2000. If all available jobs were filled, many who had degrees did not find work in fields requiring a degree. The table also shows that there was (and is) a shortage of workers overall. Even if all of the surplus workers with degrees took jobs not requiring a degree, there would have been a shortfall of 5.14 million workers in 2000. The shortfall becomes greater if unemployment is taken into account³.

Jobs and Workforce Population, by Educational Level, 2000

Education & Training Level	Number of Jobs	Civilian Workforce Population	Shortfall or Surplus of Workers
Work experience, high school, post-secondary vocational award	110,438,000	91,416,00044	-19,022,000
Associate degree or higher	35,155,000	49,037,000	13,882,000

If we look at the issue over time, it appears that the problem of underemployment of college graduates is growing. The percentage of underemployed college graduates during the 1991 to 2005 is expected to jump considerably from earlier years. During 1991-2005, there is expected to be 50,000 fewer jobs annually for college graduates than during the 1984-1990 period. In addition, the number of college graduates is expected to increase by 132,000 annually.

Percentage of College Graduates in Jobs Not Requiring a College Degree or Unemployed

Year	Employed in jobs not requiring a degree or unemployed (%)
1967	11.7
1970	11.3
1975	16.7
1980	18.6
1985	19.2
1990	19.9
1991-2005	30.85

Does this mean that there is an abundance of qualified workers to fill job openings in those occupations that require a college degree? Not necessarily. The next panel presents data on the shortfalls and surpluses in occupations requiring a college degree.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey, annual. Job data: Daniel E. Hecker. "Occupational employment projections to 2010." Monthly Labor Review, November 2001. Underemployment data: Kristina J. Shelley. "The future of jobs for college graduates." Monthly Labor Review, July 1992. John Tyler, et. al. "Are more college graduates really taking 'high school' jobs?" Monthly Labor Review, December 1995.