The driving force behind the decline in most of these occupations is automation — but there are some exceptions. Two of these are barbers and butchers and meat cutters.
The decline in barbers is said to be caused by the rise in salons where, in unisex settings, all types of hair treatments — along with manicures, pedicures, and massages — are administered to people in large establishments — and the traditional barbershop is therefore in decline, "hairdressers" doing the job for all genders. No haircutting robots seem poised to take over the job.
The decline in the number of butchers and meat cutters has more to do with structural realignments — the growth in the centralized processing of meat and poultry — than with automation per se. Demand for meat, poultry, and fish continues to be high, but more and more of the cutting and processing is done at slaughterhouses and meatpacking plants by lower paid slaughterers and meatpackers
Automation has the potential of totally eliminating the job of utility meter reader. New automated meter reading (AMR) systems monitor meters and bill customers from a centralized location. Because all meters have not been converted to this new system yet, there will still be a need for meter readers, but available jobs will be those freed by retirements or by people quitting rather than growth.
Automation has also nearly eliminated the need for ordering and procurement clerks. Business-to-business electronic commerce, and automated phone systems have made it possible for managers or selected employees to order stock directly from the suppliers. Electronic data interchange allows computers to communicate with each other to place orders; the need for human interaction in routine ordering is diminishing.
Automation and the lessening reliance on passenger railroads will make the need for railroad brake, signal, and switch operators decline the most in the next decade. But, even though passenger railroad transportation is declining, the need for railroad conductors and yardmasters is not declining as fast as brake, signal, and switch operators. As long as there are railroads, there will be a need for conductors and yardmasters. Those jobs cannot be fully automated.
Certain jobs, such as word processors and typists, computer operators, and office machine operators have generally been incorporated into other jobs. With the increased user-friendliness of office machines, including computers with built-in word processing programs, word processing is done as a routine part of other jobs.
In most cases, automation won't eliminate an occupation entirely, but certain occupations will "fade away" as the functions they used to fulfill are assumed by other occupations in whole or part.
Employees in fifteen out of the top 20 growing occupations need a post-secondary vocational award or higher. Employees in 18 out of the top 20 declining occupations need only on-the-job work experience. Will the educational attainment level of the workforce population keep up with the increasing demand for more intensely-educated workers? We will take a closer look at this issue in the next panel.
Sources: Hecker, Daniel E. "Occupational employment projections to 2010." Monthly Labor Review, November 2001. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Department of Labor. Occupational Outlook Handbook 2002-03 Edition. National Center for Education Statistics. U.S. Department of Education. Digest of Education Statistics, 2000. U.S. Census Bureau. Population Projections Program. (NP-D1-A) Projections of the Resident Population by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1999 to 2100, January 13, 2000. Retrieved January 7, 2002 from http://www.census.gov.
User Comments Add a comment…