Newly hired police and detective supervisors are expected to make up 35.3% of the workforce in this field by 2010. Because police and detective supervisors are taken from the ranks of the police force itself, there should be a surplus of qualified candidates. In the year 2000, there were 713,000 non-supervisory police officers and detectives. The expected number of job openings during the next decade is projected to be 48,000. Also, many more people are entering the law enforcement field than are needed because of high pay and good benefits. Therefore, there is likely to be a surplus of replacements for those who enter supervisory positions.
Newly hired government program eligibility clerks are expected to make up 21.7% of the employment in the field by 2010, even though projected job openings as a percentage of employment is 32.1%. The demand for eligibility clerks is expected to decline; 34,000 people will retire or leave their jobs for other reasons, but only 23,000 jobs will have to be filled. Improvements in systems are reducing the need for clerks. New systems, employing computer forms, allow each clerk to service more people in less time. The demand for clerks increases in a recession as more people seek assistance. But, overall, the field will experience a job decline over the next decade. The pool of qualified workers should outpace demand, with highly skilled applicants, especially those with backgrounds in customer service, taking the available jobs. But there are no data that project either a short supply or an oversupply of workers applying for these jobs.
Newly hired aircraft pilots and flight engineers will make up slightly less than 30% of the workforce in these fields by 2010. The supply of airline pilots and flight engineers is expected to outpace demand. Many more potential workers are expected to become pilots because of the high pay, prestige, and benefits. Those with military experience who have logged the most hours flying highly sophisticated aircraft, and those with multiple FAA licenses are preferred when hiring.
Newly hired plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters will make up 24.2% of the workforce in these fields if the demand is met. Demand is expected to outpace supply. The training involves 4 -5 years on the job with 144 hours of classroom instruction in such subjects as mathematics, applied physics, and chemistry. Those with computer and drafting skills are preferred. Many jobs also require industry-specific knowledge. Hence there is an anticipated problem.
The demand for postal service clerks is expected to grow in the next decade. New hires are expected to make up 23.7% of the workforce in 2010. Automation has cut many jobs; but window service clerks are expected to increase in response to an emphasis on customer service at the U.S. Postal Service. Postal workers must wait one or two years after passing the civil service exam to gain the necessary experience to become postal clerks. Because there were 613,000 non-clerk postal employees in 2000, and there will be a demand for only 18,000 new clerks in the next decade, the number of qualified candidates for postal clerk will exceed the demand. The number of postal service applicants to replace those that transfer to clerk positions is expected to exceed the demand as well.
In conclusion, in those fields offering high pay and good benefits, the supply of potential workers is expected to outpace demand. In jobs that offer high pay for highly skilled labor, but also demand strenuous work, there will be a shortage of qualified applicants.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Department of Labor. Occupational Outlook Handbook 2002-03 Edition, Washington D.C.,
2001. Daniel E. Hecker. "Occupational employment projections to 2010." Monthly Labor Review, November 2001.
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