Those who received their degrees from the mid-1980s to the late 1990s will be replacing the retiring Baby Boomers. They will have been working in their jobs for years and gaining the experience necessary to replace the retirees. The younger and less experienced workers will take over the jobs left by those workers replacing the Baby Boomers. These workers will also fill many new jobs created due to growth in an occupation.
If we assume that for each degree conferred there is one qualified employee ready to take a job in that field of study, then in some occupations there will be a shortfall of workers, in others a glut. The following list shows the shortfall or oversupply of workers by occupation.
Projected Shortfall or Oversupply of Workers by Occupation, 2000-2010
| 3 | |
| Registered nurses3 | -466,000 |
| Teachers, elementary school | 51,000 |
| Financial managers | 39,000 |
| Teachers, special education | 17,000 |
| Social workers | -41,000 |
| 4 | |
| Management analysts4 | 1,233,000 |
| Administrators, education and related | -38,000 |
| Lawyers | 230,000 |
| Psychologists | -37,000 |
| Personnel and labor relations managers | -50,000 |
| Photographers | -38,000 |
| Chemists | 103,000 |
| Industrial engineers | 23,000 |
The biggest shortfall will be in the nursing field. At the current graduation rate, there will be nearly a half million shortfall. The biggest glut of qualified workers will be in business administration and management. The number of jobs open will be a fraction of the number of qualified workers. In that case, most will have to find jobs in other occupations. This will also be the case for lawyers. Many may go into private practice, but the need for lawyers will determine if most stay in the profession.
Despite predictions of a shortfall of workers in teaching, if graduation rates remain steady, the pool of qualified elementary and special education teachers will actually exceed the number of jobs available. The shortfall comes when those with teaching certificates would rather take jobs in other professions. This could be due to monetary concerns and possibly poor working conditions in the districts with the most need.
If the data in the chart are to be believed, those needing photographers will find the pickings slim — but this outcome is likely only if the employer seeks a photographer with a college degree. Many skilled photographers learn their business on the job. Those workers aren't tracked. It is therefore difficult to project whether the occupation will actually see a shortfall.
Personnel and labor relations managers are expected to see the second biggest shortfall of qualified workers. In 1998, fewer students graduated with a management degree in this field than in 1993. The decline in the popularity of unions may be fueling the decline in the popularity of this course of study. The need for human resources managers, however, is growing; employees in this specialization have a wide-ranging function in modern corporations entangled with managing health and retirement plans, discrimination, and many other issues.
The potential surpluses and shortfalls in occupations requiring specialized training continue this presentation.
Sources: Chart data: National Center for Education Statistics. U.S. Department of Education. Digest of Education Statistics. 1997-2000 editions. Labor relations manager description: Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Department of Labor. Occupational Outlook Handbook 2002-03 Edition, Washington D.C., 2001.
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