The Workforce - The Aging Workforce And Its Effects On The Future Job Market

The chart shows occupations by two age groups and the percentage that each represents of the U.S. workforce. For most categories, those aged 35-64 are in the majority. The exception is "Handlers, equipment cleaners, and laborers," people who do work probably easier on younger workers.

By 2020, many of those 35 and older will be retired or nearing retirement age. In most categories, the younger workers are not numerous enough to replace those likely to leave. Shortages by category may diminish or increase depending on those now aged 18 to 24. Some of these people will switch occupations as they complete their education, others will stay on.

A closer look at the 18 to 34 age group further emphasizes the problems of a workforce skewed toward the older age groups. In 2000, the workforce aged 18 to 24 was 17.1 million people, those aged 25 to 34 were 30.6 million strong. As the workforce ages, a much smaller younger group will have to fill the jobs of their elders.

The youngest age group, of course, is disproportionately employed in the lower skilled or less desirable occupations. As these people age, improve their skills, and get degrees, they will find themselves in a buyer's market for labor — employers looking to fill 13.4 million jobs in the 25-34 cohort — for which there are no people presently in the pipeline. The younger people will therefore undoubtedly gravitate toward the better paid jobs and — as will be shown in other panels to follow — are now preparing for such jobs academically.

As the 21st century advances, problems are therefore likely to appear (they are already tangibly with us) in areas such as sales, services, administrative and support, certain stressful occupations (teaching and healthcare), and low-skilled materials handling occupations.

As the Baby Boom comes of retirement age, and the 25 to 34 age group advances to replace a larger 35 to 40 age group, the problem will intensify. To pursue this matter further, we shall look at the impact of Baby Boom retirement on the work force in selected occupational categories.

Sources: Graph and cohort data: U.S. Census Bureau. "Table 6. Educational Attainment of Employed Civilians 18 to 64 Years, by Occupation, Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: March 2000." December 19, 2000. Retrieved December 12, 2001 from http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/education/p20-536/tab06.txt. Labor force participation rates: Howard N. Fullerton, Jr. "Labor force participation: 75 years of change, 1950-98 and 1998-2025." Monthly Labor Review, December 1999. Population data: U.S. Census Bureau. Population Projections Program. Population Division. (NP-D1-A) Projections of the Resident Population by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1999 to 2100 (Middle Series). January 13, 2000. Job growth data: Daniel E. Hecker "Occupational employment projections to 2010." Monthly Labor Review, November 2001.