Data are expressed in deflated year 2000 dollars so that trends can be clearly seen. In this period — 1983 through 2000 — no strong trends are discernible. Income growth has been strongest in the non-unionized segment (0.5% a year) and slowest in the union member category (0.22%) a year; those working under union contracts have increased earnings more than union members (0.25%). Growth, in other words, has been inversely proportional to the level of the pay received.
The decline in the unionized work force appears to be due in part to the substantial median wage differential between unionized and non-union workers. Employers appear intent on reducing this differential by various means — including the export of high-paying jobs to low-wage countries, decertification efforts, and other means.
Other forces at work are the substantial growth in the services sector — large portions of which are not unionized, the growing productivity of industrial labor, which ultimately erodes highly skilled jobs, and the consequent efforts, by labor organizations, to recruit members from public sector organizations, which tend to be lower paid and more heavily skewed toward the clerical. The following table shows the shift of union membership from private to public sector organizations:
Share of Sectors and Growth Rates
| 1983 | 2000 | 1983-2000 growth or decline | |
| Union membership (000) | 17,717 | 16,268 | -8.0 |
| Covered by unions (000) | 20,532 | 17,944 | -12.6 |
| Private sector membership share -% | 67.6 | 56.2 | -11.4 |
| Public sector membership share -% | 32.4 | 43.7 | 11.3 |
| Private sector coverage share -% | 65.4 | 55.6 | -9.8 |
| Public sector coverage share -% | 34.6 | 44.4 | 9.8 |
Overall, both union membership and the number of those covered by unions are down over this 17-year period. The only gains shown are in the public sector's share of unionized jobs.
Sources: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1980-2001, United States Department of Commerce. Charted data have been normalized to 2000 dollars using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index, All Items series.
1 Data from the Bureau of the Census' Census of Government. Data used in earlier panels, taken from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, augmented by data from the U.S. Department of Defense for military forces, are higher (22.1 million). If that number is used, Government accounts of 16.2% of employment. The difference is accounted for in part by the inclusion of military forces and temporary employees, which are only partially reflected in the data used by us here. Other differences are due to different data acquisition methods.
2 Rate includes immigration. Natural increase, through births, is lower.
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