Homicide Arrest Rates by Age and Use of Guns, 1976-1999
Firearm injuries are among the top ten causes of death for anyone under the age of 45 in the United States. In additional, for every fatal shooting, there are roughly three nonfatal shootings. In 2000, 28,663 people died as a result of a firearm injury. Of these, 16,586 were suicides and 1,898 were the result of either accidental discharges or legal interventions. The remainder, 36% or 10,179, were homicides. Of all homicides committed in 2000, 65% involved a firearm, down from 70% in 1994.
One of the leading factors in the dramatic increase in murders experienced in the late 1980s and early 1990s was the increase in gun crimes among juvenile and young adult offenders. The graph charts homicide arrest rates per 100,000 population for crimes committed with and without guns by those under 25 years of age.
The rates for murders committed with guns and without guns were very close together for the 12 years 1976-1987. Then, starting in 1988 the rates for murders committed with and without a gun began to diverge sharply. The arrest rate of young people for murders committed with a gun rose 174% in a matter of seven years, from 9.6 per 100,000 in 1987 to 26.2 in 1993. The rate for murders committed without a gun stayed relatively flat, 6.3 in 1987 and 7.0 in 1993, the peak year. The entire rise in murders that occurred between 1987 and 1993 was the result of higher numbers of murders committed with guns.
Handguns were the firearms of choice during the late 1980 and early 1990s. It is generally believed that the liberal distribution of handguns to juveniles in youth gangs was behind the rise in youth violence and particularly the growth in gun violence. Youth gangs grew throughout the 1980s and 90s. The graph presents Department of Justice estimates of youth gang membership in three select years. The growth is remarkable and it should be noted that the number of gang members continued to grow well after the rate of arrest of young people for homicide began to decline sharply in 1994 and 1995.
For many reasons, beginning in the mid 1980s, juveniles were recruited into gangs, many of which were heavily involved in the new crack cocaine trade. Although these juveniles were initially recruited as low-level drug carriers they tended to advance quickly. These youths could be paid less than older gang members, fewer of them had developed a drug addition, making them more trustworthy, and they faced more lenient penalties in the legal system if caught. They were provided guns. The crack cocaine market flourished. The gun-related murder rate rose, as did violent crime generally.
The reasons for the decline in gun violence, starting in 1994, are somewhat less well understood. The crack cocaine market began to decline in the mid 1990s. Some believe that this occurred when young people came to understand the devastating effects that crack addiction has on its users. There were also increased policing efforts, harsher sentences for those found guilty of drug crimes and for those found to be members of gangs, and the number of gun tracing programs in large cities grew during the mid 1990s. All of this raised the price of participation in gangs, particularly for those at the lower levels of the organizations.
Murders Committed With and Without Guns, 1973-2000
One additional factor may have contributed to the decline in gun homicides. In 1992 a large gang in southern California, known as the Mexican Mafia, orchestrated a gang truce. The truce was commonly known as the "Eme Edict" after the nickname for the gang, La Eme. The extent to which this truce was effective in California and beyond is not known. It did, however, coincide with a decline in youth violence and murder rates and a striking decline in drive-by shooting incidents during the summer of 1993 in Los Angeles.
Unfortunately, there is reason in 2002 to be worried that the decline experienced in the last years of the 1990s may be coming to an end. Los Angeles is one of the cities with the greatest number of gangs. Young gang members may no longer feel bound by truces reached in the early 1990s. In an interview for the L.A. Times, one young gang member put it this way; "Yeah, I remember hearing about the truce. I remember hearing about JFK getting killed too." According to the Associated Press, there were 158 murders in Los Angeles between January and May of 2002. Police fear that if the pace set in the early months of the year is kept up, as many as 370 people will be murdered in 2002. That is a figure higher than was reached in the peak year of 1993 when 346 people were murdered. A disquieting development to say the least.
Another disquieting development is the proliferation of youth gangs in non-urban areas, their traditional stronghold. We will use one more panel to try and assess trends in youth gang numbers and membership.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, "Total Arrests by Age, 1970-1999," based on data from the Federal Bureau of Investigations annual Uniform Crime Reports for each year reported. Travis, Jeremy and Michelle Waul, The Urban Institute Justice Policy Center , Reflections on the Crime Decline, Lessons for the Future? August 2002, p. 42. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Vital Statistics Report, "Number of Deaths from Injury by Firearm by Age, Race, and Sex: United States, 2000," September 16, 2002, p. 69. U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, Key Facts at a Glance, "Crimes Committed with Firearms, 1973-2000," table available online at http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/glance/tables/guncrimetab.htm. Young L.A. Gang Members Send Murder Rate Soaring, an article without attribution posted on the Internet on July 22, 2002, and available at http://www.bet.com/article/1,,c1gb3381-4049,00.html.
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