Violent Crime - A Century Of Murder

Homicide Rates in the 20th Century

Murders are tracked well and have been for more than a century. National data on other crimes, covering long periods of time, are much harder to find. In part this is because murder is murder is murder. Differences of type exist — first-degree murder, second degree murder, involuntary manslaughter — but these are simply modifiers of the ultimate crime, murder. It may be, as Shakespeare's ghost in Hamlet suggests, that murder is most foul, unnatural, and strange, but it is also easily recognizable.

Over the 20th century the homicide rate in the United States fluctuated greatly. Please note that the homicide rates presented for the period 1900 to 1932 are incomplete. The sudden jump between 1905 to 1906 is more a factor of data inconsistency than an epidemic rise in the homicide rate. After rising in the early years of the century, as urbanization increased, a peak was reached in 1933. Thereafter the rate fell pretty steadily for 30 years, with one up surge as U.S. service men returned from World War II. The middle of the century busied itself with having babies and raising the boom generation. Then, in the middle of the1960s, the Baby Boomers started reaching their teens, and the homicide rate began to grow, quickly. By 1973 a rate of 9.7 murders per 100,000 population was reached equaling the previous century peak hit in 1933. The rate than dipped and grew hitting two more peaks in the late 20th century before heading down sharply from 1994 through 2000.

The graph charts the homicide rate as well as the rate of incarceration in state and federal prisons. A curve showing the percentage of the population made up of males between the ages of 20 and 34 years is also provided. This is the age group that is responsible for the greatest number of crimes and it is therefore of interest to see how their relative position in the demographic landscape relates to the homicide rate.

Homicide Offender Rates of those Aged 18-34 Years, 1976-1999

For a closer look at the age distribution we can chart the rate of homicides committed by those age 18 through 34². This age group is consistently responsible for close to half of all murders. The decline in the percentage of murders carried out by people in this age group in the middle to end of the 1990s corresponds with their decline as a percentage of the population as a whole. It also corresponds with the decline in the overall homicide rate.

Another factor to consider when viewing the homicide rate over the 20th century is the interesting rise of homicides during periods of prohibition and crackdowns on illicit substances generally. During the period of alcohol prohibition, a black market in alcohol grew and, as is often the case with markets for illicit goods, it was a system in which force ruled. The market for illegal drugs is much the same. As drug lords battle over territories and markets, levels of violence in society increase.

Illegal drugs are consumed disproportionately by the young. The period 1965 to 1994 saw the Baby Boom reach and pass through its "prime" drug consuming age, 15 to 34 years.

Baby Boomers by Age between 1945 and 1995

In 1995 the last of the "official" Baby Boom (born in 1960) reached 35 years of age. Not surprisingly, the years 1965 to 1995 were years of high demand for illegal drugs. And where there is a demand for a product there is supply. In the case of illicit drugs, the supply comes accompanied by an increase in violence.

To this strong demographic trend is added the impact of law enforcement trends in the latter part of the century. In 1970, President Nixon declared a war on drugs. Although not remembered for his progressive attitudes, Nixon's war on drugs was actually very much focused on treatment for hard-core users, according to Michael Massing, a journalist who, in 2000, published a book called The Fix about America's war on drugs. The policies that have followed under every administration since Nixon's have been increasingly Draconian. Enforcement increased, incarceration rates began to rise, and while the consumer market was strong, rates of violence rose as well. The homicide rate did not begin to fall, despite the vigorous war on drugs, until two things occurred in the middle of the 1990s. Incarceration rates began to reach unprecedented highs and the Baby Boom passed out of its "prime" criminal and drug consuming age (teens to 34)³.

At the close of the 20th century the homicide rate was down sharply from the various peaks it had reached during the century. In 2001, however, it stopped declining.

The next panel will look more closely at the income distribution of criminal victimization.

Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control, National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics, "Homicide rate per 100,000 population, 1900-1999," October 2001, available online at http://www.cdc.gov/. Leibovich, Lori. "Fixin' Under Nixon," Salon.com, May 1999, available online at http://www.salon.com/news/feature/1999/05/11/nixon/print.html.